Thursday, 15 October 2026Trading beliefs, tested on decades of real prices
EdgeorMyth

Popular trading beliefs, checked against the real price history, with costs counted.

Markets in numbers

Stock indices, gold, silver, the two largest cryptocurrencies and the major currency pairs: their average year, best and worst months, every deep fall and how long each recovery took, over all the years our data cover. Updated every day; prices to 15 October 2026.

Stock indices

MarketSinceA year on averageIn totalWorst fallTypical day
S&P 5001970+8.1%+8,200%−57%±0.5%
Nasdaq 1002004+14.2%+1,946%−54%±0.7%
Dow Jones Industrial Average2004+7.3%+396%−54%±0.5%
DAX2004+8.4%+530%−55%±0.6%
FTSE 1002004+3.9%+138%−48%±0.5%
Nikkei 2252004+8.1%+495%−61%±0.7%

Precious metals

MarketSinceA year on averageIn totalWorst fallTypical day
Gold2004+10.5%+868%−44%±0.6%
Silver2004+10.1%+791%−76%±1.0%

Crypto

MarketSinceA year on averageIn totalWorst fallTypical day
Bitcoin2014+53.6%+17,734%−83%±1.4%
Ethereum2017+25.4%+654%−94%±2.0%

Currencies

MarketSinceA year on averageIn totalWorst fallTypical day
EUR/USD1999−0.2%−5%−40%±0.3%
GBP/USD1999−0.8%−20%−50%±0.3%
USD/JPY1999+1.2%+39%−44%±0.3%
AUD/USD1999+0.4%+12%−48%±0.4%
USD/CAD1999−0.3%−7%−44%±0.3%
USD/CHF1999−1.8%−39%−60%±0.3%
NZD/USD1999+0.2%+6%−40%±0.4%

Index prices without dividends, except the DAX. Gold and silver: the nearest COMEX futures contract. Currencies: the European Central Bank's reference rates, from 1999. Bitcoin's bar runs off the scale. Oil follows once its price file passes our data check.