Dow Jones Industrial Average average return, best months and biggest falls since 2004
23 years of daily prices in numbers: the average year, the best and worst months, every big fall and how long the recovery took. Prices to 14 October 2026.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average follows 30 large US companies. It is weighted by share price, not by company size. Index prices, without dividends.
On 14 October 2026, the Dow stood 5.0% below its record close, on 5 August 2026. Over the past twelve months its highest close was 20% above its lowest.
How far the Dow stood below its record high, week by week since 2004
The Dow average return over the last 5, 10 and 20 years
Over the last 10 years the Dow rose 11.0% a year on average, +185% in total. The table shows the average yearly return for each span up to 14 October 2026.
| Period | From | A year on average | In total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 1 year | 14 Oct 2025 | +11.6% | +12% |
| Last 3 years | 13 Oct 2023 | +15.3% | +53% |
| Last 5 years | 14 Oct 2021 | +8.1% | +48% |
| Last 10 years | 14 Oct 2016 | +11.0% | +185% |
| Last 20 years | 13 Oct 2006 | +7.6% | +332% |
The average year
From 2005 to 2025, the Dow rose in 16 of 21 calendar years. The average year gained +8.3% and the median year +11.0%. The best year was 2013 (+26.5%), the worst 2008 (−33.8%). This year to 14 October: +7.4%.
* Year to date.
Best and worst months
November has been the strongest month on average (+2.6%, higher in 17 of 22 years) and September the weakest (−0.3%, higher in 12 of 23). The gaps between months are small next to the swings inside any single month, so read them as tendencies, not rules.
Average change of the Dow by calendar month, 2004–2025
Is the summer really weaker? We tested the old saying: Sell in May and go away.
The biggest falls, and how long the way back took
The deepest fall since 2004 took the Dow 53.8% below its high of 9 October 2007. It hit bottom on 9 March 2009 after 17 months, and it took another 4.0 years to close above the old high again, on 5 March 2013.
| High | Low | Fall | Fall took | Back at the high | Recovery took |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct 2007 | 9 Mar 2009 | −53.8% | 17 months | 5 Mar 2013 | 4.0 years |
| 12 Feb 2020 | 23 Mar 2020 | −37.1% | 40 days | 16 Nov 2020 | 8 months |
| 4 Jan 2022 | 30 Sep 2022 | −21.9% | 9 months | 13 Dec 2023 | 14 months |
| 3 Oct 2018 | 24 Dec 2018 | −18.8% | 3 months | 3 Jul 2019 | 6 months |
| 4 Dec 2024 | 8 Apr 2025 | −16.4% | 4 months | 22 Aug 2025 | 4 months |
How much it moves in a day
On a typical day the Dow closes about 0.5% higher or lower. A move of more than 2% happened on 6% of trading days, and a move of more than 5% 30 times in 5,731 days. The largest rise was +11.4% on 24 March 2020; the largest fall −12.9% on 16 March 2020.
| Day | Average change | Days higher | Days counted |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | +0.03% | 53% | 1,073 |
| Tuesday | +0.06% | 53% | 1,178 |
| Wednesday | +0.04% | 54% | 1,178 |
| Thursday | +0.01% | 53% | 1,155 |
| Friday | +0.03% | 56% | 1,147 |
Differences between weekdays are small and change from decade to decade. They are not a reason to trade on a given day.
Questions people ask
What is the best month for the Dow?
No month is reliable. Since 2004, November has been the strongest on average (+2.6%, higher in 17 of 22 years) and September the weakest.
What is the average return of the Dow over the last 10 years?
+11.0% a year from 14 October 2016 to 14 October 2026, +185% in total, price only.
How much has the Dow gained since 2004?
From 2 January 2004 to 14 October 2026: +396% in total, or +7.3% a year.
What was the biggest fall in the Dow?
−53.8% from 9 October 2007 to 9 March 2009; it was back at its high on 5 March 2013.
How much does the Dow move in a day?
About 0.5% on a typical day. Days with a move of more than 2% made up 6% of all trading days since 2004.
About these numbers
Index prices, without dividends. Daily closing prices from 2 January 2004 to 14 October 2026. Before use, the series was checked for gaps and for jumps that are data errors rather than market moves.
This page describes past prices. It is not advice to buy or sell anything.