Gold average return, best months and biggest falls since 2004
23 years of daily prices in numbers: the average year, the best and worst months, every big fall and how long the recovery took. Prices to 14 October 2026.
Gold in US dollars per troy ounce. Central banks, jewellery buyers and investors looking for safety all move its price.
On 14 October 2026, gold stood 22.8% below its record close, on 29 January 2026. Over the past twelve months its highest close was 34% above its lowest.
How far gold stood below its record high, week by week since 2004
Gold average return over the last 5, 10 and 20 years
Over the last 10 years gold rose 12.6% a year on average, +228% in total. The table shows the average yearly return for each span up to 14 October 2026.
| Period | From | A year on average | In total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 1 year | 14 Oct 2025 | −1.3% | −1% |
| Last 3 years | 13 Oct 2023 | +28.4% | +112% |
| Last 5 years | 14 Oct 2021 | +18.0% | +128% |
| Last 10 years | 14 Oct 2016 | +12.6% | +228% |
| Last 20 years | 13 Oct 2006 | +10.2% | +598% |
The average year
From 2005 to 2025, gold rose in 15 of 21 calendar years. The average year gained +13.1% and the median year +13.4%. The best year was 2025 (+64.4%), the worst 2013 (−28.2%). This year to 14 October: −5.4%.
* Year to date.
Best and worst months
January has been the strongest month on average (+3.4%, higher in 15 of 22 years) and June the weakest (−0.7%, higher in 10 of 23). The gaps between months are small next to the swings inside any single month, so read them as tendencies, not rules.
Average change of gold by calendar month, 2004–2025
The biggest falls, and how long the way back took
The deepest fall since 2004 took gold 44.4% below its high of 22 August 2011. It hit bottom on 17 December 2015 after 4.3 years, and it took another 4.6 years to close above the old high again, on 23 July 2020.
| High | Low | Fall | Fall took | Back at the high | Recovery took |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Aug 2011 | 17 Dec 2015 | −44.4% | 4.3 years | 23 Jul 2020 | 4.6 years |
| 18 Mar 2008 | 13 Nov 2008 | −29.7% | 8 months | 11 Sep 2009 | 10 months |
| 29 Jan 2026 | 16 Jul 2026 | −24.9% | 6 months | not yet | 3 months so far |
| 11 May 2006 | 4 Oct 2006 | −21.9% | 5 months | 19 Sep 2007 | 11 months |
| 6 Aug 2020 | 3 Nov 2022 | −21.2% | 2.2 years | 1 Dec 2023 | 13 months |
How much it moves in a day
On a typical day gold closes about 0.6% higher or lower. A move of more than 2% happened on 8% of trading days, and a move of more than 5% 20 times in 5,724 days. The largest rise was +9.0% on 17 September 2008; the largest fall −10.8% on 30 January 2026.
| Day | Average change | Days higher | Days counted |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | +0.05% | 53% | 1,069 |
| Tuesday | +0.02% | 51% | 1,179 |
| Wednesday | +0.04% | 53% | 1,176 |
| Thursday | +0.04% | 51% | 1,156 |
| Friday | +0.09% | 55% | 1,144 |
Differences between weekdays are small and change from decade to decade. They are not a reason to trade on a given day.
Questions people ask
What is the best month to buy gold?
No month is reliable. Since 2004, January has been the strongest on average (+3.4%, higher in 15 of 22 years) and June the weakest.
What is the average return of gold over the last 10 years?
+12.6% a year from 14 October 2016 to 14 October 2026, +228% in total.
How much has gold gained since 2004?
From 5 January 2004 to 14 October 2026: +868% in total, or +10.5% a year.
What was the biggest fall in gold?
−44.4% from 22 August 2011 to 17 December 2015; it was back at its high on 23 July 2020.
How much does gold move in a day?
About 0.6% on a typical day. Days with a move of more than 2% made up 8% of all trading days since 2004.
About these numbers
Prices of the nearest COMEX futures contract, in US dollars per troy ounce. Daily closing prices from 5 January 2004 to 14 October 2026. Before use, the series was checked for gaps and for jumps that are data errors rather than market moves. Futures can differ from spot prices, most of all on the days the nearest contract changes: silver on 30 January 2026 fell 31% in our data, against about 26% in reports of the day.
This page describes past prices. It is not advice to buy or sell anything.