Nikkei 225 average return, best months and biggest falls since 2004
23 years of daily prices in numbers: the average year, the best and worst months, every big fall and how long the recovery took. Prices to 15 October 2026.
The Nikkei 225 follows 225 large Japanese companies and, like the Dow, is weighted by share price. Index prices, without dividends.
On 15 October 2026, the Nikkei stood 11.0% below its record close, on 25 June 2026. Over the past twelve months its highest close was 52% above its lowest.
How far the Nikkei stood below its record high, week by week since 2004
The Nikkei average return over the last 5, 10 and 20 years
Over the last 10 years the Nikkei rose 14.3% a year on average, +282% in total. The table shows the average yearly return for each span up to 15 October 2026.
| Period | From | A year on average | In total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 1 year | 15 Oct 2025 | +35.1% | +35% |
| Last 3 years | 13 Oct 2023 | +25.9% | +99% |
| Last 5 years | 15 Oct 2021 | +17.3% | +122% |
| Last 10 years | 14 Oct 2016 | +14.3% | +282% |
| Last 20 years | 13 Oct 2006 | +7.0% | +290% |
The average year
From 2005 to 2025, the Nikkei rose in 15 of 21 calendar years. The average year gained +9.5% and the median year +9.1%. The best year was 2013 (+56.7%), the worst 2008 (−42.1%). This year to 15 October: +28.0%.
* Year to date.
Best and worst months
November has been the strongest month on average (+2.2%, higher in 14 of 22 years) and August the weakest (−0.5%, higher in 11 of 23). The gaps between months are small next to the swings inside any single month, so read them as tendencies, not rules.
Average change of the Nikkei by calendar month, 2004–2025
Is the summer really weaker? We tested the old saying: Sell in May and go away.
The biggest falls, and how long the way back took
The deepest fall since 2004 took the Nikkei 61.4% below its high of 9 July 2007. It hit bottom on 10 March 2009 after 20 months, and it took another 5.9 years to close above the old high again, on 19 February 2015.
| High | Low | Fall | Fall took | Back at the high | Recovery took |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Jul 2007 | 10 Mar 2009 | −61.4% | 20 months | 19 Feb 2015 | 5.9 years |
| 2 Oct 2018 | 19 Mar 2020 | −31.8% | 18 months | 6 Nov 2020 | 8 months |
| 24 Jun 2015 | 24 Jun 2016 | −28.3% | 12 months | 11 Oct 2017 | 16 months |
| 11 Jul 2024 | 7 Apr 2025 | −26.3% | 9 months | 12 Aug 2025 | 4 months |
| 14 Sep 2021 | 9 Mar 2022 | −19.4% | 6 months | 19 May 2023 | 14 months |
How much it moves in a day
On a typical day the Nikkei closes about 0.7% higher or lower. A move of more than 2% happened on 12% of trading days, and a move of more than 5% 52 times in 5,573 days. The largest rise was +14.2% on 14 October 2008; the largest fall −12.4% on 5 August 2024.
| Day | Average change | Days higher | Days counted |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | +0.02% | 53% | 1,028 |
| Tuesday | +0.07% | 52% | 1,132 |
| Wednesday | +0.06% | 52% | 1,136 |
| Thursday | +0.07% | 54% | 1,138 |
| Friday | 0.00% | 52% | 1,139 |
Differences between weekdays are small and change from decade to decade. They are not a reason to trade on a given day.
Questions people ask
What is the best month for the Nikkei?
No month is reliable. Since 2004, November has been the strongest on average (+2.2%, higher in 14 of 22 years) and August the weakest.
What is the average return of the Nikkei over the last 10 years?
+14.3% a year from 14 October 2016 to 15 October 2026, +282% in total, price only.
How much has the Nikkei gained since 2004?
From 5 January 2004 to 15 October 2026: +495% in total, or +8.1% a year.
What was the biggest fall in the Nikkei?
−61.4% from 9 July 2007 to 10 March 2009; it was back at its high on 19 February 2015.
How much does the Nikkei move in a day?
About 0.7% on a typical day. Days with a move of more than 2% made up 12% of all trading days since 2004.
About these numbers
Index prices, without dividends. Daily closing prices from 5 January 2004 to 15 October 2026. Before use, the series was checked for gaps and for jumps that are data errors rather than market moves.
This page describes past prices. It is not advice to buy or sell anything.