Thursday, 15 October 2026Trading beliefs, tested on decades of real prices
EdgeorMyth

Popular trading beliefs, checked against the real price history, with costs counted.

MarketsCurrenciesUpdated 15 Oct 2026

EUR/USD since 1999: yearly changes, best months and the biggest falls

28 years of daily prices in numbers: the average year, the best and worst months, every big fall and how long the recovery took. Prices to 15 October 2026.

The euro against the US dollar, the most traded currency pair in the world. A rising rate means a stronger euro.

−5%Change since 1999
−0.2%A year on average
−40%Worst fall, 2008–2022
±0.3%Move on a typical day
22 pipsTypical change a day, past 12 months

On 15 October 2026, EUR/USD stood 29.9% below its highest close since 1999, on 15 July 2008. Over the past twelve months its highest close was 7% above its lowest.

How far EUR/USD stood below its highest close, week by week since 1999

0% means a new high for the period. Each point is the lowest daily close of the week (weekdays only), measured from the highest close before it. Hover or tap for any week.

EUR/USD average change over the last 5, 10 and 20 years

Over the last 10 years EUR/USD rose 0.2% a year on average, +2% in total. The table shows the average yearly change for each span up to 15 October 2026.

Average yearly change, to 15 Oct 2026
PeriodFromA year on averageIn total
Last 1 year15 Oct 2025−3.6%−4%
Last 3 years13 Oct 2023+2.1%+6%
Last 5 years15 Oct 2021−0.7%−3%
Last 10 years14 Oct 2016+0.2%+2%
Last 20 years13 Oct 2006−0.6%−11%

The average year

From 2000 to 2025, EUR/USD rose in 12 of 26 calendar years. The average year gained +1.0% and the median year −2.5%. The best year was 2003 (+20.4%), the worst 2005 (−13.4%). This year to 15 October: −4.6%.

2000−7%
2001−5%
2002+19%
2003+20%
2004+8%
2005−13%
2006+12%
2007+12%
2008−5%
2009+4%
2010−7%
2011−3%
2012+2%
2013+5%
2014−12%
2015−10%
2016−3%
2017+14%
2018−5%
2019−2%
2020+9%
2021−8%
2022−6%
2023+4%
2024−6%
2025+13%
2026*−5%

* Year to date.

Best and worst months

December has been the strongest month on average (+1.3%, higher in 17 of 27 years) and January the weakest (−0.6%, higher in 13 of 27). The gaps between months are small next to the swings inside any single month, so read them as tendencies, not rules.

Average change of EUR/USD by calendar month, 1999–2025

Average of each month's change from the last close of the month before. Hover or tap a bar for how often that month was higher.

The biggest falls, and how long the way back took

The deepest fall since 1999 took EUR/USD 40.2% below its high of 15 July 2008, with the low on 28 September 2022. It has not closed above that high since.

The five deepest falls since 1999
HighLowFallFall tookBack at the highRecovery took
15 Jul 200828 Sep 2022−40.2%14.2 yearsnot yet4.0 years so far
5 Jan 199926 Oct 2000−30.0%22 months23 May 20032.6 years
28 Dec 200415 Nov 2005−14.4%11 months25 Apr 200717 months
27 May 20033 Sep 2003−9.4%3 months19 Nov 20033 months
17 Feb 200414 May 2004−8.2%3 months4 Nov 20046 months

How much it moves in a day

On a typical day EUR/USD closes about 0.3% higher or lower. A move of more than 2% happened on 1% of trading days, and a move of more than 5% 0 times in 7,114 days. The largest rise was +4.3% on 22 September 2000; the largest fall −4.6% on 19 December 2008.

By day of the week
DayAverage changeDays higherDays counted
Monday−0.01%49%1,405
Tuesday+0.01%50%1,434
Wednesday0.00%49%1,434
Thursday+0.02%51%1,434
Friday−0.01%49%1,407

Differences between weekdays are small and change from decade to decade. They are not a reason to trade on a given day.

Questions people ask

What is the best month for EUR/USD?

No month is reliable. Since 1999, December has been the strongest on average (+1.3%, higher in 17 of 27 years) and January the weakest.

How much has EUR/USD gained since 1999?

From 4 January 1999 to 15 October 2026: −5% in total, or −0.2% a year.

What was the biggest fall in EUR/USD?

−40.2% from 15 July 2008 to 28 September 2022; it has not recovered yet.

How much does EUR/USD move in a day?

About 0.3% on a typical day. Days with a move of more than 2% made up 1% of all trading days since 1999.

How many pips does EUR/USD move in a day?

From one ECB reference rate to the next, the median change was 22 pips over the past twelve months and 36 pips since 1999. A pip here is 0.0001. The distance between a day's high and low is larger.

About these numbers

Source: the European Central Bank's daily reference rates, one rate each working day, set in the early afternoon in Frankfurt; the US dollar pairs are computed from the euro rates. Daily reference rates from 4 January 1999 to 15 October 2026. Before use, the series was checked for gaps and for jumps that are data errors rather than market moves. Reference rates are set once a day, so a fast day in the market can look different from the close of a trading platform.

This page describes past prices. It is not advice to buy or sell anything.

Other markets