Thursday, 15 October 2026Trading beliefs, tested on decades of real prices
EdgeorMyth

Popular trading beliefs, checked against the real price history, with costs counted.

MarketsCurrenciesUpdated 15 Oct 2026

GBP/USD since 1999: yearly changes, best months and the biggest falls

28 years of daily prices in numbers: the average year, the best and worst months, every big fall and how long the recovery took. Prices to 15 October 2026.

The British pound against the US dollar, the pair traders call cable. A rising rate means a stronger pound.

−20%Change since 1999
−0.8%A year on average
−50%Worst fall, 2007–2022
±0.3%Move on a typical day
30 pipsTypical change a day, past 12 months

On 15 October 2026, GBP/USD stood 37.1% below its highest close since 1999, on 8 November 2007. Over the past twelve months its highest close was 6% above its lowest.

How far GBP/USD stood below its highest close, week by week since 1999

0% means a new high for the period. Each point is the lowest daily close of the week (weekdays only), measured from the highest close before it. Hover or tap for any week.

GBP/USD average change over the last 5, 10 and 20 years

Over the last 10 years GBP/USD rose 0.8% a year on average, +8% in total. The table shows the average yearly change for each span up to 15 October 2026.

Average yearly change, to 15 Oct 2026
PeriodFromA year on averageIn total
Last 1 year15 Oct 2025−0.8%−1%
Last 3 years13 Oct 2023+2.8%+9%
Last 5 years15 Oct 2021−0.7%−4%
Last 10 years14 Oct 2016+0.8%+8%
Last 20 years13 Oct 2006−1.7%−29%

The average year

From 2000 to 2025, GBP/USD rose in 13 of 26 calendar years. The average year gained −0.2% and the median year +1.1%. The best year was 2006 (+13.9%), the worst 2008 (−27.2%). This year to 15 October: −1.6%.

2000−8%
2001−3%
2002+11%
2003+11%
2004+8%
2005−11%
2006+14%
2007+2%
2008−27%
2009+11%
2010−4%
20110%
2012+4%
2013+2%
2014−6%
2015−5%
2016−17%
2017+10%
2018−5%
2019+3%
2020+3%
2021−1%
2022−11%
2023+6%
2024−1%
2025+7%
2026*−2%

* Year to date.

Best and worst months

April has been the strongest month on average (+1.0%, higher in 21 of 28 years) and February the weakest (−0.6%, higher in 11 of 28). The gaps between months are small next to the swings inside any single month, so read them as tendencies, not rules.

Average change of GBP/USD by calendar month, 1999–2025

Average of each month's change from the last close of the month before. Hover or tap a bar for how often that month was higher.

The biggest falls, and how long the way back took

The deepest fall since 1999 took GBP/USD 49.7% below its high of 8 November 2007, with the low on 28 September 2022. It has not closed above that high since.

The five deepest falls since 1999
HighLowFallFall tookBack at the highRecovery took
8 Nov 200728 Sep 2022−49.7%14.9 yearsnot yet4.0 years so far
21 Oct 199913 Jun 2001−17.8%20 months16 Jun 20032.0 years
16 Dec 200422 Nov 2005−12.5%11 months30 Nov 200612 months
17 Feb 200414 May 2004−8.1%3 months30 Nov 20047 months
16 Jun 20033 Sep 2003−7.1%3 months22 Oct 200349 days

How much it moves in a day

On a typical day GBP/USD closes about 0.3% higher or lower. A move of more than 2% happened on 1% of trading days, and a move of more than 5% once in 7,114 days. The largest rise was +4.0% on 19 March 2009; the largest fall −7.8% on 24 June 2016.

By day of the week
DayAverage changeDays higherDays counted
Monday−0.02%51%1,405
Tuesday0.00%50%1,434
Wednesday+0.01%51%1,434
Thursday+0.03%52%1,434
Friday−0.03%48%1,407

Differences between weekdays are small and change from decade to decade. They are not a reason to trade on a given day.

Questions people ask

What is the best month for GBP/USD?

No month is reliable. Since 1999, April has been the strongest on average (+1.0%, higher in 21 of 28 years) and February the weakest.

How much has GBP/USD gained since 1999?

From 4 January 1999 to 15 October 2026: −20% in total, or −0.8% a year.

What was the biggest fall in GBP/USD?

−49.7% from 8 November 2007 to 28 September 2022; it has not recovered yet.

How much does GBP/USD move in a day?

About 0.3% on a typical day. Days with a move of more than 2% made up 1% of all trading days since 1999.

How many pips does GBP/USD move in a day?

From one ECB reference rate to the next, the median change was 30 pips over the past twelve months and 47 pips since 1999. A pip here is 0.0001. The distance between a day's high and low is larger.

About these numbers

Source: the European Central Bank's daily reference rates, one rate each working day, set in the early afternoon in Frankfurt; the US dollar pairs are computed from the euro rates. Daily reference rates from 4 January 1999 to 15 October 2026. Before use, the series was checked for gaps and for jumps that are data errors rather than market moves. Reference rates are set once a day, so a fast day in the market can look different from the close of a trading platform.

This page describes past prices. It is not advice to buy or sell anything.

Other markets